Not financial advice. This is my personal research and opinion, based on what I’m seeing in the company’s recent results, contracts, and valuation metrics.
Why Palantir Is on Everyone’s Radar
In 2025, Palantir has been one of the headline-grabbers. The stock has had multiple sharp spikes and, zooming out, massive momentum: up roughly 381% over the past year. A lot of that strength clustered from late 2024 through 2025.
What’s been fueling the story? Government and defense deals, expanding commercial partnerships, and consistently solid quarterly prints with raised guidance.
Big Contracts and Partnerships
- $10B U.S. Army agreement (Aug 2025): This consolidated ~75 existing contracts into a single enterprise-wide deal—exactly the kind of “platform standardization” that can lock in multi-year revenue.
- Government momentum: U.S. government revenue grew ~53% YoY in Q2 2025—a strong sign for Palantir’s core franchise.
- Boeing (announced Sept 23, 2025): Integrating Palantir’s AI-enabled software into Boeing’s defense production.
- Fujitsu licensing: Fujitsu will resell Palantir’s AI platform in Japan and globally, with a joint revenue target around $100M by 2029.
- Plus ongoing progress around security certifications and AI product capabilities.
Recent Fundamentals: Beats and Higher Bars
Q2 2025 (reported Aug 4, 2025) was a classic “beat and raise”:
- Revenue ~ $1.0B, EPS ~$0.16, both above expectations.
- Full-year revenue guidance lifted to ~$4.1B.
Those are the two things I love to see in a momentum name: execution now and confidence ahead.
Stock Performance vs. the Market
- Last 3 months: ~+31% (a nice “quarter-length” read on trend).
- Last 6 months: ~+88.7%.
- Last 12 months: ~+381%.
- Since direct listing (Oct 2, 2020): Approaching a full five-year public history; the multi-year move has been enormous, with the bulk of gains in late 2024–2025.
For context, the S&P 500 was up far less across those same windows (e.g., ~15% over six months, ~16% over one year, ~101% over five years). Palantir has trounced the index.
The Valuation Elephant in the Room
This is where my enthusiasm hits the brakes:
- P/E ≈ 600+. That’s nosebleed territory. Some legendary value investors hunt under 20–30; PLTR is on the other side of the spectrum.
- No dividend. You’re here strictly for growth.
- EV/EBITDA ≈ 700+ (even higher than the P/E in my read). On a relative basis, that screens more expensive than ~98.8% of software peers—not what I’d call a “good entry” signal.
- Forward PEG ~10 (12-month forecast). Great companies often live around ~1–2 on PEG; ~10 says a lot has to go right to justify today’s price.
Bottom line: Powerful business momentum, but the market is already pricing in a lot of perfection.
Balance Sheet & Returns
- Assets vs. liabilities ~7:1. That’s healthy.
- ROA ~9.6% and ROC ~11.2%—solid mid-teens-ish “good company” territory. The business quality looks fine; it’s the price I wrestle with.
What the Smart Money Is (and Isn’t) Doing
- Hedge funds: Net sellers quarter-over-quarter in my notes (e.g., –2.64M shares vs. Q1; with 94–97% selling in recent quarters). To me, that reads like profit-taking after a huge run, not necessarily a vote of no confidence—but it’s not a bullish tell either.
- Insiders: Skewed to selling in recent months (e.g., ~86–98% sell depending on the month/window). I don’t overweight this (insiders sell for many reasons), but it rhymes with the hedge-fund picture.
- Analysts: Out of ~29 ratings, ~62% say Hold, ~24% Buy, ~14% Sell. That’s a cautious tilt—again, consistent with “great company, stretched price.”
Culture & Leadership (Quick Pulse Check)
Looking at employee feedback as a rough proxy for culture and leadership:
- Overall ~3.6/5—mixed.
- Recommend to a friend ~50%—also mixed.
- CEO approval ~60%—a slim majority.
I’d prefer stronger cultural marks, but none of this is disqualifying by itself.
So… Buy, Hold, or Sell?
Here’s how I’m framing it:
- If I already own PLTR: I’m comfortable with Hold. The company keeps executing, contracts are landing, guidance is rising, and the AI + defense positioning is durable. Personally, I might even consider trimming enough to recoup my cost basis after such a run—then let the rest ride “house money” long term.
- If I’m new and thinking about buying today: I’m cautious. The valuation is extreme (P/E, EV/EBITDA, forward PEG) and the smart-money posture (hedge funds, insiders) plus analyst consensus (majority Hold) all suggest the risk of overpaying right now is real. To me, it feels like I may have missed the big wave of 2024–2025. I’d rather wait for:
- A pullback that resets risk/reward, or
- A step-change in fundamentals (e.g., new mega-deals, margin expansion, sustained growth re-acceleration) that brings those multiples down the “right” way.
Final Thought
I like the business; I don’t love the current price. For existing holders, I see a reasonable case to keep riding the trend (with optional de-risking). For fresh capital, I lean Hold/Watchlist rather than chase. Great companies can be mediocre investments when bought at the wrong price—and right now, PLTR looks priced for a lot to go right.